Why is France the new world cup champion (and we told you)?

On June 13th at the eve of the first world cup championship celebrated in Russia CRIF Ratings (CRIF) published a special report announcing: “Francophone Teams Are The Favourites According to CRIF’s World Cup Score”. The study concluded that there were macroeconomic and financial arguments to support France and Belgium as the 2018’s World Cup champions clearly contradicting the market consensus’ odds that placed the defending champion Germany and the powerhouse Brazil as the main candidates.

Today, after an exciting final, CRIF’s key takeaway from the exercise done at the beginning is that national teams need to score at least 85 points (out of a total of 100 points) to be among the favorites. Eight out of the last ten champions (including France) scored 85 points or above according to our scoring model.

“With these results, we’re pretty satisfied with our analysis in general and with the accuracy of our model”- says Borja Monforte, Head of International Operations at CRIF Ratings. CRIF revised the last 9 World Cup tournaments and created a Champions’ Profile based on the analysis of a combination of four key sporting and economic elements. “Probably the success of our approach is pretty much linked to the methodology we have used with a straight-forward view avoiding cumbersome assumptions” – concludes Monforte.

France (90 points) won yesterday the final against Croatia (38 points) and Belgium (90 points) defeated England (53 points) in the fight for the 3rd position. France and Belgium scored in each area of analysis except for the 10-year GDP’s growth average, where the French GDP posted a negative 0.1% and the Belgian a positive 0.7%. This is largely linked to the severe economic downturn that Europe suffered during 2009-2012.

We have now updated the Champions’ Profile with France’s information. The future champions would need to fulfill the following criteria (in brackets the Champion’s Profile before France’s victory):

  • Ranking FIFA: Between 1st and 9th position (unchanged)
  • National Teams’ Average Age: Between 25.8 and 27.6 years’ old (unchanged)
  • GDP per Capita Ranking: Between 13th and 53th (between 13th and 55th)
  • 10 Year’s Average GDP Growth: Between 0.7% and 3.1% (between 1.1% and 3.1%).